A Look at Price Appreciation: Past Present & Future
by Jill Langer
Price appreciation has been a hot topic for some time, but over the last year, prices have started to balance out and it takes some explaining. As you can see from the map above provided by the National Association of Realtors, price appreciation over the long haul has been robust. The map above points out price appreciation since 2005, which was prior to the economic downturn. This demonstrates that if a homeowner was able to retain their home through the downturn of 2007-2012, that they came out on the other side well-positioned. Real estate is typically a long game, and that is one of the key points we will cover here.
First, let’s review price growth after the down turn. Since 2014, price appreciation has been out of the ordinary! The average (normal) price appreciation is 3-4% year-over-year. For clarity, “year-over-year” is defined by the last 12 months averaged over the previous 12 months. This is a larger data pull and tells a deeper story than just taking one month and comparing it over that same month the year prior.
Over these last five years, we have seen double-digit year-over-year appreciation, specifically from 2015-2018. In fact, 2018 started out with 14% price gains over 2017. This was due to rapid job growth, tight inventory, and low interest rates. It was the perfect storm to rapidly drive up prices. In the second half of 2018, interest rates started to rise, inventory had huge gains, and affordability became an increasing issue. This stalled out demand and prices came off their spring peak. The second half of 2018 brought on a price correction and started to lead a path toward more normal appreciation levels.
In the beginning of 2019, we saw year-over-year price gains average from 8-9%. As we finished out the second quarter of 2019, the year-over-year price growth continued to balance out toward typical, historical levels. We are at a place in the year-over-year data where the crazed price appreciation is no longer within 12 months, and we are tracking from the correction that happened in the second half of 2018, reflective of more normal inventory levels.
The majority of the large gains in 2018 happened in the first half of the year. Since May of 2018, inventory has grown, meaning we have seen more homes come to market, providing buyers more selection which tempers price growth. This has evened out price growth to more sustainable levels and aided in affordability. Coupled with the recent drop in interest rate (.75% since November 2018) the market has provided more ease for buyers to make purchases and for buyers that are sellers to make transitions without having to move twice. It is still a seller’s market with inventory levels under 3-months, but we are starting to move toward more balance. This is a good thing!
What does all of this mean? Quite a bit, but I’ll touch on some key points.
Many homeowners are in very favorable equity positions, especially those who bought prior to 2016 (back to that long-game point).
The days of owning your home for 1-3 years and turning a profit with a quick sale are a blip in history from 2015-2017.
Buyers simply have more selection, so the homes that are in good condition, show-ready, and priced appropriately are seeing fantastic results such as quick market times, favorable terms, and full-price or sometimes over-list-price offers.
Overpricing is becoming more common as home sellers wrap their heads around the new normal of price appreciation. Attention to market trajectory and aligning with a trusted professional can help avoid this pitfall.
The more affordable areas have seen higher gains recently as the core areas balance out from hitting affordability ceilings.
Historically low interest rates (lowest in three years!) continue to drive demand and should be as important to watch for a seller as they are for a buyer.
Below are some national price appreciation predictions from CoreLogic and various economists. It is predicted that we will continue to have price appreciation, but for it to be more subtle. The fear of equity loss on a national level from these experts is minimal. It is understandable that when price gains become more subtle that it may seem like the sky is falling, but it is important to keep the long game in perspective.
Real estate is a complicated investment to navigate, but one that can provide amazing opportunity. It also relates to big life choices; whoever said moving was easy? That is why aligning with a trusted professional is key to help make these life-changing transitions. If you are curious about the value of your home in today’s market or have thought about a move or even a first-time purchase, please reach out. It is my mission to help keep my clients informed and empower strong, life-changing decisions.